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Contemplating a 'Tech Bubble' for K-12

Do educational technology companies and entrepreneurs face the risk of a "tech bubble," similar to the massive boom-and-bust that rocked the market the late 1990s? A recently released paper says it's a real possibility.

The paper, "Obstacles and Opportunities for Entrepreneurs in Education," was released in December by the MIT Enterprise Forum of the Northwest. That organization is a chapter of the MIT Enterprise Forum, a global nonprofit organization that seeks to support technology entrepreneurs.

The paper was based partly on research and interviews with educators, entrepreneurs, business leaders, and others during 2012, and was released in conjunction with a conference held in November by the enterprise forum. The authors note that it is "not intended as a comprehensive or authoritative treatise on the subject," but rather an examination of the opportunities, and the "threats and obstacles" that education technology entrepreneurs face.

In the 1990s, the tech bubble was presaged by a number of factors, including "overheated attention and expectations" related to technology, rising investment, and good investments followed by bad ones. There was also rapid startup activity, much of which was not focused on problems solving technological and other problems, argue the authors, Frank Catalano, the principal of Intrinsic Strategy, a consulting and analysis firm, and Shirley Lunde of Bader Martin, an accounting an business advising company.

Similar forces could be at work today, the authors say.

"Digital learning may be getting too popular among some entrepreneurs and investors—because this popularity may be increasing for the wrong reasons and have little to do with actually improving education," the paper states. "There are early warning signs that the hype could be outpacing the reality."

See my full item on speculation about an ed-tech bust on the Marketplace K-12 blog.

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